Wednesday, August 24, 2005
difficult, but not impossible
Open Secrets has the totals raised and spent by all candidates in the 8th Congressional District in the 2004 election cycle. The incumbent Congressman Kolbe won with 60% of the vote and outraised and outspent his opponent, Eva Bacal, by a factor of ten.
She lost by a whopping 24 points, but she also only spent less than $100,000 in the race, virtually nothing. As near as I can tell, that bought her some stunningly lackluster TV spots in the final weeks of the election. I think the state or county party may have badly miscalculated, assuming she could coast in on Kerry's winning coattails in a state that ultimately went red by about 10 points.
Money is certainly a factor in any race, but the candidate has to be convincing. The Democrats simply did not have that in Mrs. Bacal last cycle. She seems like a lovely woman, but she didn't run the kind of campaign you need to run against a reasonably popular incumbent who has held his seat for 20 years.
SurveyUSA's most recent 50 state tracking poll for August has President Bush's approval rating at 45% in Arizona. His disapproval rating is at a whopping 52%. Couple that with national approval ratings for Congress in the low 30's and you have plenty of ripe fruit for the right Democrat. Congressman Kolbe faces primary challenges from at least two others (including a repeat of his match with perennial right-wing nut Randy Graf). I'm told he will run to the left in the primary to ensure he wins the Tucson Foothills voters (his peeps). After all, the 2004 primary proved that he could lose the Cochise County vote and still win the primary.
Let's also not forget that there will be a very mean-spirited and cynical anti-same-sex-marriage proposition sharing the November ballot with this race. Will the Congressman come out (again, so to speak) against the measure? I think it's safe to say he doesn't favor it, but how vocal will he make his opposition? The primary goal of the initiative of course is to drive up conservative turnout. With public opinion turning against the Iraq war and the Bush administration's domestic agenda even among social conservatives who would presumably vote for the amendment to the state Constitution, it's a risky strategy for the state GOP. I know more than a few southern Arizona moderate Republicans who aren't too happy about what their party and allied groups have cooking for 2006.
Bottom line: with the state-level executive offices pretty much a lock (Napolitano, Goddard and Brewer likely won't face much serious opposition) and the Senate seat seriously in play, AZ08 is the other race to watch next year (possibly AZ01 too, but I don't live there so I'll leave the punditry to someone who does). The Democrats can win it back for the first time in 20 years if they play a clean but aggressive game and focus on winning the socially liberal, fiscally conservative Foothills vote. They held the seat since statehood until they lost it to the sitting member in 1984.
She lost by a whopping 24 points, but she also only spent less than $100,000 in the race, virtually nothing. As near as I can tell, that bought her some stunningly lackluster TV spots in the final weeks of the election. I think the state or county party may have badly miscalculated, assuming she could coast in on Kerry's winning coattails in a state that ultimately went red by about 10 points.
Money is certainly a factor in any race, but the candidate has to be convincing. The Democrats simply did not have that in Mrs. Bacal last cycle. She seems like a lovely woman, but she didn't run the kind of campaign you need to run against a reasonably popular incumbent who has held his seat for 20 years.
SurveyUSA's most recent 50 state tracking poll for August has President Bush's approval rating at 45% in Arizona. His disapproval rating is at a whopping 52%. Couple that with national approval ratings for Congress in the low 30's and you have plenty of ripe fruit for the right Democrat. Congressman Kolbe faces primary challenges from at least two others (including a repeat of his match with perennial right-wing nut Randy Graf). I'm told he will run to the left in the primary to ensure he wins the Tucson Foothills voters (his peeps). After all, the 2004 primary proved that he could lose the Cochise County vote and still win the primary.
Let's also not forget that there will be a very mean-spirited and cynical anti-same-sex-marriage proposition sharing the November ballot with this race. Will the Congressman come out (again, so to speak) against the measure? I think it's safe to say he doesn't favor it, but how vocal will he make his opposition? The primary goal of the initiative of course is to drive up conservative turnout. With public opinion turning against the Iraq war and the Bush administration's domestic agenda even among social conservatives who would presumably vote for the amendment to the state Constitution, it's a risky strategy for the state GOP. I know more than a few southern Arizona moderate Republicans who aren't too happy about what their party and allied groups have cooking for 2006.
Bottom line: with the state-level executive offices pretty much a lock (Napolitano, Goddard and Brewer likely won't face much serious opposition) and the Senate seat seriously in play, AZ08 is the other race to watch next year (possibly AZ01 too, but I don't live there so I'll leave the punditry to someone who does). The Democrats can win it back for the first time in 20 years if they play a clean but aggressive game and focus on winning the socially liberal, fiscally conservative Foothills vote. They held the seat since statehood until they lost it to the sitting member in 1984.
