Monday, September 26, 2005
possible dem candidate in az-08
Oro Valley resident Jeff Latas has formed an exploratory committee for a possible run against Kolbe next year. So far, he's the first credible potential Democratic contender for the seat.
Based on his initial website, he seems pretty solid on energy policy and environmental issues. He'll need some help fleshing out some of his other policy stances. He also will need to work on distilling some of his other positions into clearer and more compelling messages.
But what is most interesting to me about his potential candidacy this early in the game is how competitive he could be to Kolbe in a general election. The voters of District 8 are mostly moderate-to-conservative (with a few flaming progressives like me). Latas' career in the Air Force, which only ended a few years ago, would easily put a dent in one of Kolbe's strongest personal history credentials: his Navy service. Latas also has a son on active duty in Iraq, so if he is the Democratic nominee, he would have instant credibility to capitalize on the anti-war majority sentiment.
Let's face it: in this district with an Air Force Base and an Army Intelligence Base, military service is political gold. Mary Judge Ryan was a great candidate in the last mid-term elections, but she failed to ignite her base or get more than 40% of the vote. Eva Bacal was more or less a disaster of a candidate in 2004. The last Democratic challenger to come close to unseating Kolbe was former Tucson mayor Tom Volgy in '98, and I attribute most of that near-success to name recognition and a largely successful tenure as the city's chief executive.
For the Dems to win back the seat, they need to do two things: nominate a candidate with a military background (that's the part that generally makes me uneasy, as they are generally unwilling to divert military spending into more vital human service needs) and tie Kolbe to Tom DeLay at every turn.
According to the DCCC, Congressman Kolbe votes with the Majority Leader a whopping 92% of the time. Kolbe has accepted more than $5,000 in campaign contributions from the PAC at the center of the criminal probe against DeLay. The rotton apple doesn't usually fall very far from the corrupt tree.
Anyway, check out Latas' website. Depending on how the primaries shape up, he could be a strong contender. If by some wild chance Graf wins the Republican primary, Latas would mop the floor with him. I'm interested to see if any other Dems throw their hats in the ring. I think Tim Sultan would also have a decent chance if he ran again this year.
As you recall, Sultan ran in the primary in 2004 and lost to Eva Bacal. But the amazing thing is that during the primary season he raised within $1,000 of what she raised in the entire primary and general cycle. He would have been a lot more competitive financially if he had won the nomination. Kolbe outraised and outspent Bacal by 10 to 1 margins. Sultan could have at least cut those margins in half and would have been a smarter campaigner. He could have won at least more than 40% of the vote.
But what's past is history. It's time we look to the future.
Based on his initial website, he seems pretty solid on energy policy and environmental issues. He'll need some help fleshing out some of his other policy stances. He also will need to work on distilling some of his other positions into clearer and more compelling messages.
But what is most interesting to me about his potential candidacy this early in the game is how competitive he could be to Kolbe in a general election. The voters of District 8 are mostly moderate-to-conservative (with a few flaming progressives like me). Latas' career in the Air Force, which only ended a few years ago, would easily put a dent in one of Kolbe's strongest personal history credentials: his Navy service. Latas also has a son on active duty in Iraq, so if he is the Democratic nominee, he would have instant credibility to capitalize on the anti-war majority sentiment.
Let's face it: in this district with an Air Force Base and an Army Intelligence Base, military service is political gold. Mary Judge Ryan was a great candidate in the last mid-term elections, but she failed to ignite her base or get more than 40% of the vote. Eva Bacal was more or less a disaster of a candidate in 2004. The last Democratic challenger to come close to unseating Kolbe was former Tucson mayor Tom Volgy in '98, and I attribute most of that near-success to name recognition and a largely successful tenure as the city's chief executive.
For the Dems to win back the seat, they need to do two things: nominate a candidate with a military background (that's the part that generally makes me uneasy, as they are generally unwilling to divert military spending into more vital human service needs) and tie Kolbe to Tom DeLay at every turn.
According to the DCCC, Congressman Kolbe votes with the Majority Leader a whopping 92% of the time. Kolbe has accepted more than $5,000 in campaign contributions from the PAC at the center of the criminal probe against DeLay. The rotton apple doesn't usually fall very far from the corrupt tree.
Anyway, check out Latas' website. Depending on how the primaries shape up, he could be a strong contender. If by some wild chance Graf wins the Republican primary, Latas would mop the floor with him. I'm interested to see if any other Dems throw their hats in the ring. I think Tim Sultan would also have a decent chance if he ran again this year.
As you recall, Sultan ran in the primary in 2004 and lost to Eva Bacal. But the amazing thing is that during the primary season he raised within $1,000 of what she raised in the entire primary and general cycle. He would have been a lot more competitive financially if he had won the nomination. Kolbe outraised and outspent Bacal by 10 to 1 margins. Sultan could have at least cut those margins in half and would have been a smarter campaigner. He could have won at least more than 40% of the vote.
But what's past is history. It's time we look to the future.
