Monday, September 12, 2005
pro-choice arizona
SurveyUSA just released the results of their latest 50-state poll, this one on abortion.
By an overwhelming margin, adults in this state identify as pro-choice. A strong belief in individual self-determination makes sense for a state that has that whole silly "rugged individualism" thing going for it.
This makes for a confusing disconnect, given that most elected representatives at the state and federal level are rabidly anti-choice. One curious exception is Congressman Jim Kolbe (R-08).
This leads me to mention that I've been compiling extensive research for an analysis of the '06 race for Congressional District 8. Jim Kolbe is an 11-term Congressman, the first Republican to represent this general area (the district has changed boundaries several times due to redistricting since he was first elected) since statehood.
I'll be creating a separate page on this site with much of this information and my own analysis. The important point for now: according to the Arizona Redistricting Commission that independently established the current Congressional Districts following the 2000 Census, District 8 is the only competetive one in the state, with the difference in party registrations less than 7%.
Of the other seven districts, four have a distinct Republican registration advantage and three have a distinct Democratic registration advantage. Of the three with a Democratic advantage, only two are represented by Democrats in Congress: Ed Pastor in District 4 and Raul Grijalva in District 7. The remaining district, District 1, has elected a radical right-winger who barely lived in the state when he was first elected. Not very surprisingly, District 1 has the second-lowest registration difference between the two parties.
What does this indicate? That Congressional Districts in Arizona with close numbers of Republicans and Democrats can be won by a crossover non-district-majority candidate who can sufficiently activate his (or her) party base in the District.
I would assume that local Democrats are already aware of this. They can prove that they are competent by nominating a candidate who can win, not just one who has been loyal to the party hierarchy or makes them feel good by nominating her. Democrats need a real all-star who will play a strong offense.
By an overwhelming margin, adults in this state identify as pro-choice. A strong belief in individual self-determination makes sense for a state that has that whole silly "rugged individualism" thing going for it.
This makes for a confusing disconnect, given that most elected representatives at the state and federal level are rabidly anti-choice. One curious exception is Congressman Jim Kolbe (R-08).
This leads me to mention that I've been compiling extensive research for an analysis of the '06 race for Congressional District 8. Jim Kolbe is an 11-term Congressman, the first Republican to represent this general area (the district has changed boundaries several times due to redistricting since he was first elected) since statehood.
I'll be creating a separate page on this site with much of this information and my own analysis. The important point for now: according to the Arizona Redistricting Commission that independently established the current Congressional Districts following the 2000 Census, District 8 is the only competetive one in the state, with the difference in party registrations less than 7%.
Of the other seven districts, four have a distinct Republican registration advantage and three have a distinct Democratic registration advantage. Of the three with a Democratic advantage, only two are represented by Democrats in Congress: Ed Pastor in District 4 and Raul Grijalva in District 7. The remaining district, District 1, has elected a radical right-winger who barely lived in the state when he was first elected. Not very surprisingly, District 1 has the second-lowest registration difference between the two parties.
What does this indicate? That Congressional Districts in Arizona with close numbers of Republicans and Democrats can be won by a crossover non-district-majority candidate who can sufficiently activate his (or her) party base in the District.
I would assume that local Democrats are already aware of this. They can prove that they are competent by nominating a candidate who can win, not just one who has been loyal to the party hierarchy or makes them feel good by nominating her. Democrats need a real all-star who will play a strong offense.
