In light of Jim Kolbe's retirement announcement earlier this week, several prominent local Democrats have been touting the prospects of State Senator Gabrielle Giffords.

While I genuinely like her and, being one of her constituents, have voted for her for as long as I've lived in her district, I'm still not convinced the conventional wisdom is all that accurate.

For starters, getting elected in legislative district 28 is a lot different than getting elected in Congressional district 8. While LD28 trends significantly Democratic, CD8 trends moderately to the Republican side.

According to the Pima County Recorder's website, there are 39,422 Democrats, 25,835 Republicans, 970 Libertarians, 562 Greens and 24,402 Independents/Others registered to vote in LD28. Democrats comprise about 43% of the electorate in the district, a plurality.

By contrast, in CD8, there are 107,922 Democrats, 150,942 Republicans, 2,291 Libertarians, 773 Greens and 80,128 Independents/Others registered to vote. Democrats are only about 34% of the electorate in the Congressional district. Republicans hold a 48% plurality in the district.

Legislative District 28 is not a microchosm of the Congressional district of which it's a part. Winning the legislative district, no matter how big the margin, is not a harbinger of ability to win the Congressional district. Gabby won LD28 with 64% of the vote in 2004; Kolbe won CD8 with 60%. Gabby's Republican colleague in the state Senate, Toni Hellon, who is another frequently-discussed candidate for the now-open seat, ran unopposed last year and won her district, LD26, with 99% of the vote.

Of course, part of the problem with Legislative districts in Arizona is that they are so partisan that those elections are won or lost during the primaries. And Arizona voters are general loyal partisans in general elections. This is why the Independents become electoral gold in the eyes of candidates every cycle. Even so, the party with the registration advantage in any given district is more likely than not to win those elections. The actual influence of Independent voters in Arizona elections is marginal.

But back to the CD8 '06 Democratic horserace...

I really don't appreciate the rich and powerful members of the party automatically annointing Senator Giffords without even acknowledging that there are at least two other people who have already stepped up to the plate. They deserve a lot of credit for being willing to step up to the plate and take on the Goliath that was Jim Kolbe's machine in CD8. A Democrat only considering a run now that Kolbe has retired is, to me, opportunistic at best.

I've not been kind here to Eva Bacal and her Kolbe-opponent predecessors, but I do believe they all deserve a tremendous amount of credit and respect for being willing to put themselves up against a relatively popular incumbent. If you think you can win in the district, it shouldn't matter whether or not the incumbent is running again.

And so I am much more likely to support Jeff Latas or Francine Shacter - or even Dwight Leister - in the upcoming primary battle than I am my own representative from the state Senate.

There's principle and then there's that elusive concept of "electability." I think among the three already-declared candidates, there's at least one who can fulfill my requirements for both principle and electability, even moreso than Senator Giffords.