Wednesday, November 23, 2005
reason to be truly thankful
It's official. Jim Kolbe is retiring from Congress at the end of this term.
I'd been ignoring the rumors swirling around this last week because they swirl around every odd-numbered year.
This means it's a whole new ballgame and the chances of a Democratic pickup may have improved significantly. Those chances depend a lot on the Republicans and whether or not they can recruit a moderate who can win the district in the primary against Randy Graf. More than usual, this election will be won or lost during the primary.
While I'm thankful that we're finally shedding ourselves of one out-of-touch, conservative-inmoderate's-clothing, I'll hold off on rejoicing too loudly until we see how both fields shape up.
MoveOn is also conducting an online survey about who should run on the Democratic ticket to replace Kolbe. If you have someone in mind, let MoveOn know.
I'm a little frustrated that the Star article didn't mention the two Democrats who have already declared their candidacies, Jeff Latas and Francine Shacter. They did however mention Eva Bacal, who lost badly to Kolbe last year. She's planning to run again (her chances would be better this time around, but I still think she's a lackluster candidate). Other contenders mentioned in the article were Tim Sultan (I still doubt he'd run) and Gabby Giffords (my very own state Senator and the one considered the frontrunner).
Running against an incumbent requires razor-sharp criticism and an aggressive posturing. Running for an open seat held by a member of another party requires some of that, but can also allow for some more nuance and softness. Where the Dems needed a pit bull of a candidate before, now they can settle for a German Shepard. This also gives the Democrats an opportunity to run a candidate with more blatantly progressive values than a closet progressive who could blunt some of Kolbe's perceived advantages.
Ironically, Kolbe's retirement is probably the best chance his party has to hold on to the seat because it reduces the Democrats' ability to make this election about Kolbe's loyalty to President Bush and the culture of corruption in DC.
Of this I am certain: it's going to be one hell of a ride!
I'd been ignoring the rumors swirling around this last week because they swirl around every odd-numbered year.
This means it's a whole new ballgame and the chances of a Democratic pickup may have improved significantly. Those chances depend a lot on the Republicans and whether or not they can recruit a moderate who can win the district in the primary against Randy Graf. More than usual, this election will be won or lost during the primary.
While I'm thankful that we're finally shedding ourselves of one out-of-touch, conservative-inmoderate's-clothing, I'll hold off on rejoicing too loudly until we see how both fields shape up.
MoveOn is also conducting an online survey about who should run on the Democratic ticket to replace Kolbe. If you have someone in mind, let MoveOn know.
I'm a little frustrated that the Star article didn't mention the two Democrats who have already declared their candidacies, Jeff Latas and Francine Shacter. They did however mention Eva Bacal, who lost badly to Kolbe last year. She's planning to run again (her chances would be better this time around, but I still think she's a lackluster candidate). Other contenders mentioned in the article were Tim Sultan (I still doubt he'd run) and Gabby Giffords (my very own state Senator and the one considered the frontrunner).
Running against an incumbent requires razor-sharp criticism and an aggressive posturing. Running for an open seat held by a member of another party requires some of that, but can also allow for some more nuance and softness. Where the Dems needed a pit bull of a candidate before, now they can settle for a German Shepard. This also gives the Democrats an opportunity to run a candidate with more blatantly progressive values than a closet progressive who could blunt some of Kolbe's perceived advantages.
Ironically, Kolbe's retirement is probably the best chance his party has to hold on to the seat because it reduces the Democrats' ability to make this election about Kolbe's loyalty to President Bush and the culture of corruption in DC.
Of this I am certain: it's going to be one hell of a ride!
