Monday, August 28, 2006
never count your chickens
There are a number of Arizona progressive bloggers touting the latest Zogby/Wall Street Journal poll that shows Jim Pederson within about 4% of Jon Kyl.
There's only one problem: this was an online poll and the methodology is inherently flawed.
I hate to be a party-pooper, but look at this latest poll in comparison to all other recent polls of the race (listed on the WSJ page) and Kyl's SUSA approve/disapprove numbers. He's (barely) above 50% and trending upwards. The WSJ/Zogby poll is the clear outlier.
At least wait to celebrate until another couple of polls confirms this one. Until then, I'm still encouraging the Pederson team to start going after Kyl's abysmal record of putting profits before people and rigid ideaology before realistic solutions.
There's only one problem: this was an online poll and the methodology is inherently flawed.
I hate to be a party-pooper, but look at this latest poll in comparison to all other recent polls of the race (listed on the WSJ page) and Kyl's SUSA approve/disapprove numbers. He's (barely) above 50% and trending upwards. The WSJ/Zogby poll is the clear outlier.
At least wait to celebrate until another couple of polls confirms this one. Until then, I'm still encouraging the Pederson team to start going after Kyl's abysmal record of putting profits before people and rigid ideaology before realistic solutions.
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It's not really counting our chickens so much as appreciating a little good news when it comes our way.
The bottom line, and it's a cliche, is that only one poll counts, and that's the one they take in November.
However, I have to agree with you on going after Kyl's record. He's still too "neutral" a figure - few people outside of the party cores feel strongly about him.
The bottom line, and it's a cliche, is that only one poll counts, and that's the one they take in November.
However, I have to agree with you on going after Kyl's record. He's still too "neutral" a figure - few people outside of the party cores feel strongly about him.
Thanks for the comment. I can appreciate the desire and need to celebrate some good news. But I worry that our side will take this poll as gospel and get complacent instead of running the kind of aggressive campaign needed to oust an incumbent. The devil is in the details as they say, and the details at least so far seem to indicate that this latest poll is the exception and not the rule.
Even if we were inclined to take it as gospel, that would only last until the next poll was released.
After thinking about your comment, I also came to believe that part of the reason so many people jumped on the news of the Zogby/WSJO poll is that we were bored with campaign by press release that's been going on between these two.
I'm actually looking forward to the debates that are supposedly coming up next month.
After thinking about your comment, I also came to believe that part of the reason so many people jumped on the news of the Zogby/WSJO poll is that we were bored with campaign by press release that's been going on between these two.
I'm actually looking forward to the debates that are supposedly coming up next month.
I can definitely appreciate that. Between the press releases and the TV ads, non-internal poll news (which I haven't heard of from either side) is good news either way.
And I really hope Pederson is going to debate school. Not that Kyl is known for his oratory skills, but spending 12 years in such a deliberative body has got to have given him an edge.
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And I really hope Pederson is going to debate school. Not that Kyl is known for his oratory skills, but spending 12 years in such a deliberative body has got to have given him an edge.
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