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Tuesday, September 19, 2006

nj05

So I wanted to check in on the Congressional race in the district I grew up in in New Jersey. Paul Aronsohn is the Democrat running against crazy right-wing Republican incumbent Scott Garrett. Garrett defeated incumbent moderate Republican Marge Roukema in a primary in 2002. Roukema was no walk in the park, but Garrett is an absolute nightmare.

Aronsohn is definitely part of the Jersey Democratic political machine. He held positions in the Clinton White House and was Governor McGreevey's Communications Director and Spokesman. He has an impressive resume, which will hopefully resonate with the residents of NJ-05. His direct mail pieces also look pretty good; I hope enough carefully targeted households are receiving them.

I haven't been following the race all that closely. Aronsohn had a contested primary, which he won easily (a case of the machine paying off). This is not an easy district for a Democrat to win; the Republicans hold a sizeable voter registration margin in this district, which caps the northern part of the state from New York City to the Delaware River.

The district is a wide mix of urban, suburban and rural communities. The population centers of the district are certainly in its eastern part, closer to NYC, where Aronsohn is from and where his largest base is. But there are plenty of votes to be had in more rural Sussex and Warren (my native) counties. Aronsohn on his website has a page called "Walk the Walk Tour" that tracks using Google maps technology where his campaign has been knocking on doors. Notice anything a little off about that map?

The Aronsohn campaign is totally ignoring the western part of the district, which is admitedly much more conservative and much more likely to vote for Garrett. That doesn't mean you cede it though. It means you have to fight harder in that part of the district to win it. It looks like the campaign will soon be venturing into a couple of towns in Sussex County, but Warren County is still being totally written off. I'm not saying the reception in Hackettstown or Belvedere or Alamuchy or Liberty is going to be warm and friendly, but that's even more reason to go to those places - they need to hear a strong argument against the crazy conservative currently claiming to represent them in Congress.

This district isn't on any map of possible Dem takeovers. It could get closer if Aronsohn wouldn't cede entire counties to the opposition. Tough decisions have to be made in campaigns about the use of available resources. Garrett has raised twice as much money as Aronsohn and has close to five times as much cash on hand. I respect that Aronsohn is being frugle with the money he has left. This is an expensive district for media (New Jersey has no major TV stations, so all advertising in the state must be done on either New York City or Philadelphia stations, which are two of the most expensive markets in the country). But there are surely a large base of committed volunteers who can walk precincts in Warren and Sussex Counties, even if the official campaign can't afford to make that trek (a pitiful excuse).

Here's something I find even more depressing: my hometown made the top 10 ZIP Codes list for contributions to Garrett. And I bet I know exactly which family this came from (I used to work for them).

I guess my bottom line is that there are actually Democrats in the western part of this district who are dying for a candidate to give them an alternative to the misrepresentation they currently have in D.C. These voters need to be motivated and engaged. Aronsohn should leave no voter behind. I hope he's at least targeting these voters with some direct mail.

Comments:
A few things. Garrett didn't beat Roukema in 2002, she retired. In fairness to Paul, I'm pretty sure he's saved Warren for last. The last thing is I'm also running against both of them.

Thanks,
Matt
 
Thanks for the clarification about Roukema's retirement. I was sure I'd read somewhere that Garrett ousted her in a primary. Perhaps it was Roukema's chosen replacement that he defeated?

Anyway, thanks also for putting yourself out there and running. Good luck with your campaign.
 
Thanks for the good wishes. Roukema didn't endorse anyone in the race and thought because Garrett was the nominee the seat might go to the Democrats. It should be interesting to see where we all end up this year.
 
Isn't it Belvidere the town and Belvedere the butler?

What family did you work for?
 
I don't know, but I do know that Ilene Graf, who played the mom on Mr. Belvedere, is an Ithaca College Department of Theatre Arts alumna. Me, her and Gavin McLeod.

I'm really not sure how I feel about that...
 
Oh yeah, and David Boreanaz too. But he was a Cinema and Photography major, which was my original major before I switched.

I'm a little more comfortable with that one.
 
Did I tell you we sent a student to Ithaca on a full scholarship in MT? She was a Katrina evacuee from the arts school in New Orleans, so we couldn't take full credit for her or anything. Very talented, nice girl, extremely deserving of a full scholarship.


Yeah, well, we have Debra Messing and Gates McFadden. And the producer of "Undercover Brother" (he was the only one I knew).
 
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