According to the just-released SurveyUSA poll of the AZ Senate race, Jim Pederson is now well within striking distance of Jon Kyl. The poll, of likely voters, puts Kyl at 48% and Pederson at 43%. What I find most interesting is that Pederson has a slight lead in the Phoenix metro area, while Kyl leads in Tucson and the rest of the state. This runs counter to the conventional wisdom about the way this state's politics work.

Pederson's "nobody's Senator but ours" tagline to portray him as an independent seems to be paying off, with him leading among independents by a 5 to 3 margin. Pederson needs to do a better job of tapping into voter discontent with the Bush administration and Kyl's rubber stamp of that administration in Congress. While 83% of Bush approvers support Kyl, only 70% of Bush disapprovers support Pederson. He clearly needs to throw a few more punches that hit Kyl square on the jaw while catching Bush in the backswing.

This is incredible news. Pederson's well within striking distance. And Kyl is below 50%, which is exactly where we need him to be at this point. His lying pork ads clearly didn't click the same way Pederson's ads have been.

Oh, and the margin of error was 4.6%, which is slightly high, but Pederson has clearly made a lot of progress. Trend lines aren't available, because the last SUSA poll on the race back in July only measured registered voters.

Also released today was the poll of the Governor's race. Janet's up 16 points and is well above 50%. What I found most telling in the SUSA analysis was this part (emphasis mine):

Today, 7 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Napolitano leads by 16 points, 56% to 40%. Napolitano is up by 27 points among women and by 5 points among men. 91% of Democrats and 70% of Independents support Napolitano. 23% of Republicans cross over to vote for the Democrat. Munsil leads 3:1 among Arizona's Conservatives, who make up 35% of the electorate.

Munsil's base makes up 35% of the electorate in Arizona. They are among the most likely to vote in any election, and the poll was of likely voters. And Munsil is only at 40%. He clearly hasn't extended his appeal beyond his base, and he shows no ability to do so. Janet, on the other hand, leads every other demographic group and in every region of the state. Munsil's a scary guy, but we're in very little danger of him actually becoming anything more than a laughingstock.