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Wednesday, September 13, 2006

a strategy suggestion for ld26 senate race

I really ought to get to bed, but it's just postapalooza tonight!

In looking at the results in the stunning upset for Toni Hellon in the LD26 Senate race, it's clear that although Melvin beat her by a narrow margin in Pima County with about 92% of precincts here reporting, he beat her by more than a 3 to 1 margin in the two Pinal County precincts.

Pesquiera has a real shot at the seat now, but her GOTV effort will be absolutely critical in the more moderate Pima County precincts of the district. She should focus on mail-in ballots for all Dems in-district. She should also tactfully heap praise on outgoing Senator Hellon. This is a Republican-favored but moderate district. Toni had a pretty good handle on the moderates and is a real champion for health and human service issues. It's doubtful that Toni will endorse either Melvin (a real wacko) or Pesquiera. But the classy thing for Pesquiera to do now, which could also win over some of Hellon's disaffected base, would be to thank Senator Hellon for her years of dedicated service on behalf of all her constituents in LD 26.

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