I don't want to burst anybody's bubble after a largely very positive election night, but victory in CD08 is not a foregone conclusion now that it looks like it'll be a Giffords vs. Graf match up for sure.

Turnout in the GOP primary was higher than in the Democratic primary, 51,435 to 50,317 as of this writing with 89.9% of precincts reporting on both sides.

Now don't get me wrong: the fact that those numbers are so close when Democrats are outnumbered by Republicans by a wider margin is good news. As is the fact that Giffords won by a much larger margin with more opponents than Graf.

But as I've been saying since Kolbe announced his retirement last November, this race will not be the cakewalk a lot of people are making it out to be. Our chances are very very good given the candidates who have emerged from the primary, but we can't rest on our laurels. Graf has a sizeable, energized base and his party has a registration advantage in the district. He also has the advantage of having run a district-wide race before.

Of course, given what I've seen of Giffords' operation, all my worrying is probably for naught. They probably don't need the reminder, but nobody should take the prospect of Congresswoman Giffords for granted.